研究:冷氣可提升生產力
2013-01-15
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作者:經濟學人
1950年以前,波斯灣海岸線一帶的居民不到50萬,如今此區的居民已經多達2000萬,主因即為人造的冷空氣。不過,許多批評者
認為冷氣並非奇蹟,而是個詛咒,它浪費資源、帶動氣候變遷並破壞的臭氧層。但另一方面,許多研究亦顯示冷氣可以提升生產力,也可以降低熱浪來襲之際的死亡
率。
不過,地球的健康又怎麼樣呢?美國冷氣的總用電量比整個非洲的用電量都要高,聽起來很嚇人,但05年美國家庭總用電量中,冷氣仍舊只佔8%,暖氣佔了41%,製造熱水則佔了20%。此外,美國家庭平均用電30年來都沒有增加。
但窮國收入增加也帶起了美國式的冷氣潮流;1995至2004年間,中國城市家庭擁有冷氣的比例從8%增至70%,由於中國電力約70%仍舊來自燃煤電廠,任何增加用電量的東西,在全球暖化方面造成的傷害也特別嚴重。
所幸冷氣也變得更有效率。過去30年裡,己發展國家的冷氣規範變嚴格,已經讓新冷氣機的能源效率提升了一倍。如果技術革新能避免使用氟里昂等冷卻劑就更好了,就算是汙染度較低的冷卻劑,溫室效應也是二氧化碳的2000倍。
冷氣亦非降低室內溫度的唯一方式,例如在屋頂灑水等。此外,在室內種植植物、能將熱能傳至地面的地板也都能降溫。風扇和網格式坐椅也能減低人體的不適,畢竟,真正的目標不是減低建築內的溫度,而是讓人能有涼爽的感覺。(黃維德譯)
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
No sweat
Air conditioning
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: January 15, 2013
Artificial cooling makes hot places bearable—but at a worryingly high cost.
Jan 5th 2013 | DUBAI | from the print edition
SUMMER humidity in the Gulf often nears 90%. Winds are scant. Even in
the shade the heat hovers far above the body's natural temperature. No
wonder that before 1950, fewer than 500,000 lived along the whole
500-mile southern littoral. Now, rimmed by the mirrored facades of
office towers, gleaming petrochemical works, marinas, highways, bustling
airports, vast shopping malls and sprawling subdivisions of sumptuous
villas, it is home to 20m people. Their lives are made possible by
"coolth"—artificially cooled air.
Yet a chorus of critics counts air conditioning as more a curse than a
miracle. Though food refrigeration is an unquestioned part of modern
civilisation, chilling a room causes sniffiness. In his book "Losing our
Cool" Stan Cox, a polemical plant scientist, blamed it for "resource
waste, climate change, ozone depletion and disorientation of the human
mind and body". In 1992 Gwyn Prins, a Cambridge University professor,
called "physical addiction" to cooled air America's "most pervasive and
least noticed epidemic".
Puritans sometimes forget that air conditioning was invented with the
efficiency of machines, not the comfort of people, in mind. An early
success came in 1902, at a printing plant in Brooklyn, New York, where
shrinkage of paper due to humidity meant that differently coloured
layers of ink could not be properly aligned. By the 1920s air
conditioning had spread to public spaces such as cinemas and department
stores. Their trade used to slump in the heat-sodden summer. With cool
air indoors, it boomed. The same technology that cools the air also
cleans it: the dust-free environments for high-tech manufacturing
require air conditioning.
People fare better, too. A study of government typists in 1950s
America found that air conditioning raised productivity by a quarter. On
factory floors it cut absenteeism and stoppages. "Air-Conditioning
America", a book by Gail Cooper, cites a 1957 survey in which 90% of
American firms named cooled air as the single biggest boost to their
productivity. The late Nelson Polsby, a political scientist at the
University of California, Berkeley, suggested that air conditioning
reshaped American politics, by enabling the migration of Republican
pensioners to the Sun Belt. That helped break the long-standing
Democratic lock on southern politics.
A mapping project devised by William Nordhaus, an economist at Yale,
revealed more proof that heat wilts economies. Using a global grid
system to escape the biases of national data, he identified an almost
linear correlation between mean annual temperatures and productivity per
head. People in the coolest climes, he found, generate 12 times the
economic output of those in the hottest. Far fewer people live at those
extremes than in middling climate zones, but even in the crowded
temperate band of the globe, the difference in output between hotter and
cooler places was big.
Cooling also lowers mortality. In studies of what epidemiologists
quaintly call a "harvesting effect", summer heatwaves have been shown to
cause sudden rises in the number of deaths from cardiovascular,
respiratory and cerebrovascular disease. A 2006 survey of six South
Korean cities, for instance, indicated that a rise of just 1°C over
normal summer peak temperatures prompted a rise of between 6.7% and
16.3% in mortality from all causes. On the hottest days during a 2003
heatwave in Spain, according to a health-ministry survey, the increase
over normal mortality rates was around a quarter.
Live cool and long
Studies of heatwaves in American cities during the 1980s and 1990s
observed that a good predictor for falling ill was poverty, and
specifically a lack of air conditioning in the home. Surveys since then
suggest that the dramatic fall in the number of Americans who sicken or
die during heatwaves is a direct result of widening air-conditioner
ownership, from 68% of American households in 1993 to nearly 90% today.
An academic paper on deaths in Chicago related to a 1999 heatwave
concluded bluntly that "the strongest protective factor was a working
air conditioner."
A statewide study of summer admissions to hospital in California,
published in 2010, adjusted for household income, found that for each
10% increase in ownership of air conditioning there was an absolute
reduction in cardiovascular disease of 0.76%, and of respiratory disease
by 0.52%, for people over 65. For places less blessed than California,
where risks include insect-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue
fever, or high levels of toxic particulate matter in the air, the
benefits of wider air-conditioning use could be far greater.
But what about the health of the planet? America uses more
electricity for cooling than Africa uses for everything, notes Mr Cox.
Hotter summers and larger homes helped American energy consumption for
air conditioning to double between 1993 and 2005. Cooling buildings and
vehicles pumps out almost half a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
annually.
That sounds a lot. Yet air conditioning still only accounted for 8%
of household power consumption in 2005, according to the most recent
comprehensive survey by America's Energy Information Agency. That
compares with 41% for heating, and 20% for making hot water, the
necessity of which is seldom contested. (Significantly, overall energy
use per American household has not risen in 30 years, because of things
like better insulation and more efficient gadgetry.) Air conditioning is
more energy-intensive than heating. But people use less of it. The
shift in America's population from northern to southern states has cut
the nation's total energy bill.
Yet rising incomes in poor countries are associated with
American-style spending on air conditioning there. Between 1995 and 2004
the proportion of homes in Chinese cities with air conditioning rose
from 8% to 70%. Asia already accounts for more than half the global
air-conditioning market, and China alone for 70% of production. Sales of
air conditioners there, boosted by government schemes that also
encourage purchase of more efficient models, have rocketed. Global
warming will further stoke demand. Research in the Netherlands (see
chart) by Morna Isaac and Detlef van Vuuren reckons that energy demand
for air conditioning will rise forty-fold this century.
Given that dirty coal-fired plants still produce some 70% of China's
current energy output, anything that stokes its electricity consumption
is particularly damaging in global-warming terms. But with the use of
air conditioners rising inexorably, their share in energy consumption is
rising too, with the added trouble that heatwaves bring sudden spikes
in use, meaning that spare capacity has to be built in to provide for
summer peaks in power demand. The big blackouts over swathes of India in
the summer of 2012 were widely blamed on its burgeoning middle class's
desire to keep cool. That may be unfair: though air-conditioning
certainly stokes demand, political meddling in the power industry
hampers its ability to keep the current flowing.
Thankfully for lovers of coolth, air conditioning is becoming more
efficient. In the past 30 years, more stringent standards for air
conditioners in developed countries have more than doubled the energy
efficiency of new units. For decades, air conditioning has used the same
compressor technology that runs refrigerators. But Coolerado, an
American company, claims to have cut energy costs by 90%, using only
water as a coolant: its devices feature specially designed plastic
plates that chill by evaporation. They blast half the air, sodden and
warm, back outside and send the rest, cool and dry, inside. The machines
can even be solar powered (though their thirsty habits may not suit all
hot places).
Conventional air conditioning has to overcool the air in order to rid
it of moisture. This dehumidifying is the most expensive part of the
process. An Israeli-founded firm called Advantix is one of a number of
companies using "liquid desiccant" technology: it forces air through a
strong brine solution which sucks out the moisture. Advantix says its
machines cut energy consumption by half. Using plentiful night-time
energy to iron out daytime peaks can work, too. A Californian company
has a product called Icebear that makes and stores ice cheaply at night
to cool buildings during the day.
]
Such changes are even more beneficial if they avoid using refrigerant
chemicals such as freon. These air-conditioning coolants leak into the
atmosphere and are among the more potent greenhouse gases. Even less
polluting coolants that have widely replaced earlier kinds produce
warming effects that are 2,000 times more powerful than carbon
dioxide's. International protocols have only slowly phased out the
worst, ozone-eating gases. But in the meantime, much slow-to-replace old
equipment in rich countries, as well as factory-fresh units in poor
ones, still rely on older pollutants which are, to boot, still smuggled
in large quantities to countries where they are meant to be banned.
What may be harder to mitigate are the subtler negative impacts that
air conditioning has had on the environments where people live and work.
Since the 1940s, climate control has prompted architects to lower
ceilings and scrap such pleasant features as balconies and porches,
which leak costly cooled air into the outside world. Instead of being
spaced to allow air to circulate, or being built around courtyards,
buildings have tended to be boxlike and tightly packed together. That
can create "heat canyons" where each building's air-conditioning unit
runs at full throttle in a futile race against its neighbours. In the
sprawling conurbations of the American South, as in the Gulf and cities
such as Singapore, people seeking company find fewer free communal open
spaces, and are herded instead into commercialised indoor venues such as
shopping malls.
Fan dances
Perhaps the most ambitious response to such problems comes from Amory
Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a think-tank that promotes
energy efficiency. He argues that a combination of thoughtful design and
new technology can minimise or even eliminate the need for air
conditioning. His approach starts with architecture: avoiding
dark-coloured external surfaces, using trees and other shade providers,
and installing proper insulation and modern windows that let in light
but reflect heat. These may be expensive to install, but hugely cut the
need for cooler air—and hence the cost of providing it.
Nor is air conditioning the only way to lower the temperature
indoors. Spraying water on a roof provides natural chill through
evaporation, as do draught towers. "Many civilisations mastered these
arts millennia ago," Mr Lovins notes. A profusion of indoor plants help
cool a room, as do cleverly designed floors that conduct heat into the
ground. Modern fans and mesh chairs can reduce the sensation of
uncomfortable heat: the aim, after all, is to cool people, not
buildings. For all that, the millions who have experienced the
invigorating blast of cold, dry air on a hot muggy day will be loth to
abandon it.
from the print edition | International
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013