2009年9月27日 星期日

稀土

2009年 09月 28日 07:12
稀土世界 中國為王
土或許並不在大多數投資者的視野之內﹐但幾乎所有的高科技產品都不能離開它們。在稀土的領域里﹐中國佔據著主導地位。

據美國地質調查局(U.S. Geological Survey)的資料﹐稀土是鑭、釓等17種特殊金屬元素的統稱﹐這些元素都帶著科幻小說般的名字。這17種金屬元素廣泛運用於一切產品中:玻璃拋光和陶器、汽車觸媒轉化器、電腦顯示器、照明、電視以及藥品。

出 版集團Agora Financial旗下刊物《Energy & Scarcity Investors》編輯金(Byron King)表示﹐我們就像需要石油一樣離不開稀土。但這些元素沒有一個像金銀一樣出名﹐也不像鐵、鋁或銅那樣通過巨型礦石貨輪進行裝運。

金說﹐如果沒有這些元素﹐現代經濟的諸多部分就會直接停轉。

但他表示﹐真正研究這些元素的人都是碩士和博士級別的化學專家以及固態物理學家﹐以及中國等國家的頂級專家。

實際上﹐中國幾乎壟斷了這一市場。稀土領域就象“大富翁”遊戲:中國擁有著Boardwalk、Park Place以及幾乎所有的地產﹐而西方則偏安St. James Place一隅。

波士頓大學金融學教授、風險管理領域專家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示﹐中國在稀土領域的地位就相當於沙特阿拉伯在石油行業一樣。和石油一樣﹐稀有金屬也將賣給出價最高的買主。

UncommonWisdomDaily.com的自然資源分析師布魯德里克(Sean Brodrick)表示﹐中國佔有全球約97%的稀土產量﹐2008年產量為13.9萬噸﹐中國也消耗了全球約60%的稀土。

美國地質調查局表示﹐美國也是稀土的一個重要消費國﹐去年美國沒有稀土元素產量。

布魯德里克說﹐中國的稀土消耗量不斷增長﹐因此其出口也減少了。

鑒於稀土被用於如此多的產品和物件﹐中國的這一狀況可能給全球稀土市場帶來一個重大問題。

金說﹐如果沒有這些元素﹐你就得告別現代生活的諸多方面。我們將不再有電視屏幕、電腦硬盤、光纖電纜 、數碼相機和大多數醫療成像設備。你還得告別航天發射和衛星﹐全球的煉油系統也會停轉。

科技領域作用大

實際上﹐在創造新的綠色經濟、拯救地球於氣候變化災難的尖端科技領域﹐稀土也發揮著關鍵的作用。

金表示﹐如果全球市場稀土供應吃緊的話﹐那麼“綠色”未來也就無從說起﹐只會有“有限”未來。

Emerging Market Strategies的主席甘姆伯(william gamble)舉例說﹐豐田汽車(Toyota)領先市場的混合動力車普瑞斯(Prius)的電動馬達電池需要10-15公斤鑭。

他說﹐普瑞斯的電池還用了1公斤釹﹐這是生產永久磁鐵的合金的重要成份。

金說﹐事實上釹是可形成強力永久磁鐵的唯一元素﹐不過工程師們一直努力尋找替代元素。

他補充說﹐很少有人知道強力磁鐵是美國國防庫存中所有導彈的定向系統中至關重要的因素。

同時﹐使用最廣泛的稀土元素鑭數十年來一直是石油加工的一個重要材料﹐因此就連不環保的汽車也要依賴稀土元素。

金說﹐由於在稀土產量方面佔主導地位﹐中國現在和將來開發許多技術時都會擁有壓倒性的優勢。

控制

憑借對市場的這種束縛﹐中國正在盡其所能阻止其它國家染指。

投資通訊Exploration Insights的作者、地質學家庫克(Brent Cook)說﹐最近的表態說明中國將限制對外出口﹐同時關閉國內污染嚴重的礦山。中國正在集中供應。

庫克說﹐就像力拓(Rio Tinto)和土耳其的Eti Mine通過控制硼酸鹽市場能夠有效遏制任何競爭對手的生產那樣﹐我相信中國有能力而且也會對新出現的生產商採取同樣做法。

布魯德里克說﹐中國對在今後幾十年里控制全球稀土市場﹐並以此控制21世紀的能源技術制定了周詳的計劃。

初步舉措包括限制出口。他說﹐今年的出口限額預計是迄今最低的﹐同時進一步的限制措施也正在計劃中。

其次﹐中國政府似乎還在迫使使用稀土元素的生產廠商遷到中國。

布魯德里克說﹐想從中國獲得稀土元素的公司能夠如願。它們只不過必須將生產設備轉到中國﹐因為傳聞中的種種出口限制。

他說﹐第三﹐中國已經採取行動﹐收購世界各地的其他稀土資源。

他列舉了兩家澳大利亞公司的事例﹐Lynas Corp.和Arafura Resources計劃未來幾年開發稀土礦﹐產量合計將相當於全球稀土年產量的四分之一。

去年信貸市場崩潰後﹐兩家公司都失去了融資來源。布魯德里克說﹐中國察覺到機會﹐插手進來﹐讓國有礦業公司提供資金﹐供這兩家公司完成礦井和礦石加工廠的建設。

作為交換條件﹐出資的中國公司獲得了Lynas和Arafura的股份﹐比例分別為51.7%和25%。

金表示﹐中國政策採取的是長期策略。雖然中國稀土產量未來幾年尚可支撐﹐但幾乎可以肯定在那之後會出現下降。

他說﹐中國政府明白這一點。因此當全球市場看到有關中國限制稀土出口的消息時﹐他們就意識到這樣做既是為了保護稀土礦和相關資產﹐也是為了吸引新產業進入中國。

市場損失﹐中國獲利

而且中國對這一市場的掌控很難打破。

Emerging Market Strategies的甘姆伯說﹐中國能夠壟斷稀土市場的原因是﹐過去十年里它能夠將價格壓得比任何人都低。

中國稀土行業也是嚥下了環境方面的惡果才得以實現增長。

大宗商品套期保值顧問機構Hudson & Associates的總裁哈德遜(Marcus Hudson)說﹐許多稀土元素都有巨毒。由於中國在環境安全方面監管鬆弛﹐未來還會出現環境方面的噩夢。

然而﹐雖然中國有價格和監管方面的優勢﹐但其他國家規模較小的勘探公司在新的稀土項目上已開始取得進展﹐可能蠶食中國在這一市場的統治地位。

庫克說﹐要擺脫中國對市場的控制﹐顯然就得在中國以外開發新礦。現在有一些小型勘探公司正致力於此。

他說﹐因此實際上稀土元素並不缺乏﹐有足夠的儲量﹐能夠輕易滿足需求﹐不過要付出代價。

他說﹐至少直到現在為止﹐稀土生產的成本依然不低﹐不過如果價格保持在高位﹐我們就會看到中國之外出現許多新的稀土礦。

但他補充說﹐問題在於中國控制著價格﹐而且能夠通過降價讓任何新廠商破產。

Myra P. Saefong

Burst of Technology Helps Blind to See

Burst of Technology Helps Blind to See


Published: September 26, 2009

Blindness first began creeping up on Barbara Campbell when she was a teenager, and by her late 30s, her eye disease had stolen what was left of her sight.

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Béatrice de Géa for The New York Times

Barbara Campbell is part of a worldwide experiment testing whether electrodes implanted in the eye can restore sight.

Reliant on a talking computer for reading and a cane for navigating New York City, where she lives and works, Ms. Campbell, now 56, would have been thrilled to see something. Anything.

Now, as part of a striking experiment, she can. So far, she can detect burners on her stove when making a grilled cheese, her mirror frame, and whether her computer monitor is on.

She is beginning an intensive three-year research project involving electrodes surgically implanted in her eye, a camera on the bridge of her nose and a video processor strapped to her waist.

The project, involving patients in the United States, Mexico and Europe, is part of a burst of recent research aimed at one of science’s most-sought-after holy grails: making the blind see.

Some of the 37 other participants further along in the project can differentiate plates from cups, tell grass from sidewalk, sort white socks from dark, distinguish doors and windows, identify large letters of the alphabet, and see where people are, albeit not details about them.

Linda Morfoot, 65, of Long Beach, Calif., blind for 12 years, says she can now toss a ball into a basketball hoop, follow her nine grandchildren as they run around her living room and “see where the preacher is” in church.

“For someone who’s been totally blind, this is really remarkable,” said Andrew P. Mariani, a program director at the National Eye Institute. “They’re able to get some sort of vision.”

Scientists involved in the project, the artificial retina, say they have plans to develop the technology to allow people to read, write and recognize faces.

Advances in technology, genetics, brain science and biology are making a goal that long seemed out of reach — restoring sight — more feasible.

“For a long time, scientists and clinicians were very conservative, but you have to at some point get out of the laboratory and focus on getting clinical trials in actual humans,” said Timothy J. Schoen, director of science and preclinical development for the Foundation Fighting Blindness. Now “there’s a real push,” he said, because “we’ve got a lot of blind people walking around, and we’ve got to try to help them.”

More than 3.3 million Americans 40 and over, or about one in 28, are blind or have vision so poor that even with glasses, medicine or surgery, everyday tasks are difficult, according to the National Eye Institute, a federal agency. That number is expected to double in the next 30 years. Worldwide, about 160 million people are similarly affected.

“With an aging population, it’s obviously going to be an increasing problem,” said Michael D. Oberdorfer, who runs the visual neuroscience program for the National Eye Institute, which finances several sight-restoration projects, including the artificial retina. Wide-ranging research is important, he said, because different methods could help different causes of blindness.

The approaches include gene therapy, which has produced improved vision in people who are blind from one rare congenital disease. Stem cell research is considered promising, although far from producing results, and other studies involve a light-responding protein and retinal transplants.

Others are implanting electrodes in monkeys’ brains to see if directly stimulating visual areas might allow even people with no eye function to see.

And recently, Sharron Kay Thornton, 60, from Smithdale, Miss., blinded by a skin condition, regained sight in one eye after doctors at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine extracted a tooth (her eyetooth, actually), shaved it down and used it as a base for a plastic lens replacing her cornea.

It was the first time the procedure, modified osteo-odonto-keratoprosthesis, was performed in this country. The surgeon, Dr. Victor L. Perez, said it could help people with severely scarred corneas from chemical or combat injuries.

Other techniques focus on delaying blindness, including one involving a capsule implanted in the eye to release proteins that slow the decay of light-responding cells. And with BrainPort, a camera worn by a blind person captures images and transmits signals to electrodes slipped onto the tongue, causing tingling sensations that a person can learn to decipher as the location and movement of objects.

Ms. Campbell’s artificial retina works similarly, except it produces the sensation of sight, not tingling on the tongue. Developed by Dr. Mark S. Humayun, a retinal surgeon at the University of Southern California, it drew on cochlear implants for the deaf and is partly financed by a cochlear implant maker.

It is so far being used in people with retinitis pigmentosa, in which photoreceptor cells, which take in light, deteriorate.

Gerald J. Chader, chief scientific officer at the University of Southern California’s Doheny Retinal Institute, where Dr. Humayun works, said it should also work for severe cases of age-related macular degeneration, the major cause of vision loss in older people.

With the artificial retina, a sheet of electrodes is implanted in the eye. The person wears glasses with a tiny camera, which captures images that the belt-pack video processor translates into patterns of light and dark, like the “pixelized image we see on a stadium scoreboard,” said Jessy D. Dorn, a research scientist at Second Sight Medical Products, which produces the device, collaborating with the Department of Energy. (Other research teams are developing similar devices.)

The video processor directs each electrode to transmit signals representing an object’s contours, brightness and contrast, which pulse along optic neurons into the brain.

Currently, “it’s a very crude image,” Dr. Dorn said, because the implant has only 60 electrodes; many people see flashes or patches of light.

Brian Mech, Second Sight’s vice president for business development, said the company was seeking federal approval to market the 60-electrode version, which would cost up to $100,000 and might be covered by insurance. Also planned are 200- and 1,000-electrode versions; the higher number might provide enough resolution for reading. (Dr. Mech said a maximum electrode number would eventually be reached because if they are packed too densely, retinal tissue could be burned.)

“Every subject has received some sort of visual input,” he said. “There are people who aren’t extremely impressed with the results, and other people who are.” Second Sight is studying what affects results, including whether practice or disease characteristics influence the brain’s ability to relearn how to process visual signals.

People choose when to use the device by turning their camera on. Dean Lloyd, 68, a Palo Alto, Calif., lawyer, was “pretty disappointed” when he started in 2007, but since his implant was adjusted so more electrodes responded, is “a lot more excited about it,” he said. He uses it constantly, seeing “borders and boundaries” and flashes from highly reflective objects, like glass, water or eyes.

With Ms. Morfoot’s earlier 16-electrode version, which registers objects as horizontal lines, she climbed the Eiffel Tower and “could see all the lights of the city,” she said. “I can see my hand when I’m writing. At Little League games, I can see where the catcher, batter and umpire are.”

Kathy Blake, 58, of Fountain Valley, Calif., said she mainly wanted to help advance research. But she uses it to sort laundry, notice cars and people, and on the Fourth of July, to “see all the fireworks,” she said.

Ms. Campbell, a vocational rehabilitation counselor for New York’s Commission for the Blind and Visually Handicapped, has long been cheerfully self-sufficient, traveling widely from her fourth-floor walk-up, going to the theater, babysitting for her niece in North Carolina.

But little things rankle, like not knowing if clothes are stained and needing help shopping for greeting cards. Everything is a “gray haze — like being in a cloud,” she said. The device will not make her “see like I used to see,” she said. “But it’s going to be more than what I have. It’s not just for me — it’s for so many other people that will follow me.”

Ms. Campbell’s “realistic view of her vision” and willingness to practice are a plus, said Aries Arditi, senior fellow in vision science at Lighthouse International, a nonprofit agency overseeing her weekly training, which includes practice moving her head so the camera captures images and interpreting light as objects.

“In 20 years, people will think it’s primitive, like the difference between a Model T and a Ferrari,” said Dr. Lucian Del Priore, an ophthalmology surgeon at New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Medical Center, who implanted Ms. Campbell’s electrodes. “But the fact is, the Model T came first.”

Ms. Campbell would especially like to see colors, but, for now, any color would be random flashes, Dr. Arditi said.

But she saw circular lights at a restaurant, part of a light installation at an art exhibition. “There’s a lot to learn,” she said. Still, “I’m, like, really seeing this.”

2009年9月25日 星期五

Intel Still Trying to Put Smarts Into the Boob Tube

Intel Still Trying to Put Smarts Into the Boob Tube

Silicon Valley has been talking for 15 years or so about marrying TV and the Internet. For the most part, it’s still just talk; most people still use their PCs when they want interactivity, and rely on their TVs when they want to be passive content-watchers.

Intel
Intel’s Eric Kim holding a new chip for consumer electronics devices

But Intel is not giving up. The chip giant, having run along with partners down most of the blind alleys of interactive television, gave an update this week about a reformulated TV strategy that might be paraphrased as follows: it’s the software, stupid.

In other words, people don’t want to visit Web sites or engage in other PC-like activities while relaxing in front of their big-screen TV. They want new experiences that exploit the combined possibilities of TV, the Internet and computers. That means Intel needs to get lots of smart programmers to write new applications that make TVs more fun and useful.

Eric Kim, senior vice president and general manager, Intel’s digital home group, compares today’s situation in TVs to smartphones before Apple and its iPhone App Store showed the market what was possible. “With iPhone everything changed,” he says, in an interview following his keynote speech at the Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco Thursday. “We think a similar thing could happen on TVs.”

A year ago at the same event, Kim put a lot of the emphasis on “widgets,” simple programs that appear on TV screens and exploit a format developed in an alliance with Yahoo. This year, he stressed that widgets are helpful but not sufficient; programmers need a more powerful development environment that they understand already.

The best candidate, Kim suggested, is Adobe Systems’ Flash format, which is already used to bring animations and video to Web sites. And not some stripped-down version of the technology, either, but technology that is capable of playing games and other sophisticated content. So Intel and Adobe announced plans to adapt its Flash Player 10 technology to consumer-electronics devices by the first half of 2010.

Flash 10 requires computing power and, not surprisingly, Intel wants to help with that. On Thursday it announced a new system-on-a-chip for TVs, set-top boxes and other devices based around its popular Atom microprocessor, a successor to a similar chip Kim introduced a year ago.

Among the other developments at the show, Kim predicted that simple PC games will soon arrive on such consumer-electronics devices without the need for a computer or gaming console. A Toronto-based company, TransGaming, announced a game-delivery service called GameTree.tv that plans to offer a library of games and help software companies adapt those products to run on devices powered by Intel chips. (Most PC games are designed to exploit the Microsoft’s Windows operating system and its graphics technology, DirectX; TransGaming helps adapt those games to work on the Linux operating system and a graphics technology called OpenGL).

Kim was followed in talking about the future of TV by Justin Rattner, Intel’s chief technology officer. He supplied some examples of what smarter TVs and associated software could do for users. Navigating among many more entertainment options will be one of the biggest challenges; one piece of technology that Rattner showed automatically called up his list of previously chosen programming choices by identifying his face when he walked up to the TV. Another possibility is to call up likely choices of Web sites or TV programs based on sites a user recently visited on their smartphone or laptop, he said.

One of the most impressive demonstrations came from 3ality Digital, a Burbank, Calif., company that has been involved with events such as live 3D broadcasts of football games. After the IDF audience put on a special set of dark glasses, Rattner spoke with a larger-than-life 3-D rendering of Howard Postley, 3ality Digital’s chief technology officer. An odd sensation–akin to a human interacting with a hologram.

英特爾新晶片 搶數位TV市場

  • 工商時報 2009-09-26

  • 【涂志豪/美國舊金山24日專電】

 英特爾24日在英特爾開發者論壇(IDF)中,宣佈推出內建Atom核心的媒體處理器系統單晶片CE4100,打開進軍數位電視市場大門,英特爾也將整 合資源,推動Light Peak的光纖傳輸解決方案,成為數位電視傳輸主流規格。英特爾技術長賈斯汀(Justin Rattner)表示,預估2015年全球將有150億個可看電視的消費性電子產品終端,這將是個具龐大成長空間的新市場。

 過去幾年英特爾已多次嘗試進入數位電視市場,但一直沒有成功,英特爾數位家庭事業副總裁Eric Kim在IDF專題演說中就指出,別把電視搞得像電腦一樣,這是不可行的做法,英特爾過去已有失敗經驗。

 所以,英特爾在IDF中推出CE4100新晶片,雖仍希望將IA架構移植到電視市場,但會在軟體及內容上與更多夥伴合作,把市場大餅做大。

 當然,英特爾此刻重新回到數位電視市場,正是看準了全球各國已經陸續開播數位電視訊號,今年起也將開始收回類比訊號頻譜、停播類比訊號。 既然電視走上了數位化,代表電視市場不在只是單向的傳播,賈斯汀指出,喊了多年的互動電視將成為未來主流,2015年全球將有150億個消費性電子產品終 端,可以收看數十億小時的電視節目,這是個十分驚人的龐大市場。

 英特爾不僅推出媒體處理器CE4100,也決定推動Light Peak光纖傳輸解決方案,成為數位電視市場標準規格。賈斯汀表示,Light Peak將具備標準型接口,只需要一條光纜,就可將家中所有電子產品資料串聯起來,如將Netbook的電視訊號利用Light Peak接上電視,不僅可以看電視節目,也會具有很強的互動性。

 英特爾要做大數位電視的市場大餅,其他晶片供應商當然是有福同享。如目前數位機上盒內建晶片,包括揚智、聯詠、聯陽等國內供應商,及智 原、創意等設計服務業者,均已受惠於數位電視訊號陸續開播,晶片出貨屢創新高。法人預估,未來英特爾勢必會投入更多資源,力拱數位電視市場,揚智、聯陽等 相關晶片廠將直接受惠。

2009年9月18日 星期五

Intel Sets Sights on New Markets, to 'Systems-on-a-Chip'



Intel Sets Sights on New Markets

Industry Giant Looks Beyond Microprocessors to 'Systems-on-a-Chip'



Intel Corp. will soon introduce chips based on a new manufacturing technology it hopes will help the company attack potentially tough new markets as well as boost computer performance.

[Intel says its new production process will make it the first to offer 32-nanometer chips. Left, an Intel worker in a clean room where processors are developed.] Intel

Intel says its new production process will make it the first to offer 32-nanometer chips. Above, an Intel worker in a clean room where processors are developed.

Intel has said the new production process will make it the first to offer chips with circuit dimensions measured at 32 nanometers -- or billionths of a meter -- compared with a 45-nanometer process it adopted two years ago. The company said this week it has begun manufacturing the new chips, which will be sold to computer makers in the fourth quarter.

Shrinking transistors and other circuitry boost chips' performance and data-storage capacity while reducing manufacturing costs. For this reason, Intel and its rivals are always racing to develop new production processes.

This time Intel, which commands four-fifths of the market for the microprocessors that act as calculating engines in computers, plans to simultaneously introduce two versions of its 32-nanometer production process. One will make chips for computers; the other will be tailored for "systems on a chip," or SoCs, which are multi-function chips used in consumer-electronics devices such as cellphones, cars and other applications outside the computer industry.

Intel Chief Executive Paul Otellini has identified such markets as an essential part of the company's growth strategy. But the company can't just rely on one of its biggest historical advantages -- the array of programs that run on its chips -- since many SoCs use specialized software.

Instead, Intel plans to make a case that its 32-nanometer technology offers big benefits over the production processes historically used by companies that serve the SoC market. "They have not kept up," said Sanjay Natarajan, director of 32-nanometer logic process development.

Among other things, Mr. Natarajan said, Intel can offer customers a choice between extremely high performance -- including transistors that are about 22% faster than 45-nanometer versions -- or opt for slower speeds but low power consumption, a benefit in extending the battery life of cellphones and other products.

The SoC market poses new challenges. Intel must offer a range of components that it doesn't typically include on its microprocessors and compete more directly with manufacturing services known as foundries that have long served SoC makers.

"The design side of it is more complex," said Risto Puhakka, an analyst at market researcher VLSI Research. "It's really venturing outside the classic computer-industry model."

Rivals expect to be close on Intel's heels. Gregg Bartlett, senior vice president in charge of technology at Globalfoundries -- a manufacturing spinoff of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. -- said it expects to be making 32-nanometer chips next year. His company's advantages, he said, include membership in a technology alliance that includes International Business Machines Corp. and other manufacturers.

Intel, which has pledged to spend $7 billion to add 32-nanometer technology to its U.S. plants, is initially using the technology on Westmere, a version of a chip line called Nehalem that is packaged with a chip to manage graphics -- a move to save space and boost performance.

The company's first 32-nanometer SoCs are expected early next year. In the meantime, Intel next week plans to discuss Jasper Forest, a 45-nanometer SoC targeted at products such as communications and data-storage equipment. On Thursday, it is expected to follow up with Sodaville, another 45-nanometer chip for digital TVs, set-top boxes and media players that combines its Atom microprocessor with circuitry for graphics, video and other functions.

Write to Don Clark at don.clark@wsj.com

2009年9月4日 星期五

Google’s Internet Techniques Inspire Studies of Food Webs

Observatory

Google’s Internet Techniques Inspire Studies of Food Webs


Published: September 4, 2009

A major reason Google’s search engine is so successful is its PageRank algorithm, which assigns a pecking order to Web pages based on the pages that point to them. A page is important, according to Google, if other important pages link to it.

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But the Internet is not the only web around. In ecology, for instance, there are food webs — the often complex networks of who eats whom.

Inspired by PageRank, Stefano Allesina of the University of Chicago and Mercedes Pascual of the University of Michigan have devised an algorithm of their own for the relationships in a food web. As described in the online open-access journal PLoS Computational Biology, the algorithm uses the links between species in a food web to determine the relative importance of species in a food web, which will have the most impact if they become extinct.

Dr. Allesina, who studies network theory and biology, was reading a paper about Google’s algorithm one day while at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “I said, ‘This reminds me of something,’ ” he recalled.

One key to PageRank’s success is that its developers introduced a small probability that a Web user would jump from one page to any other. This in effect makes the Web circular, and makes the algorithm solvable. But in food webs, Dr. Allesina said, “you can’t go from the grass to the lion — the grass has to go through the gazelle first.

“We could not use the same trick to make food webs circular,” he went on.

So they used another trick, he said. Since all organisms die and decompose, they created a “detritus pool” that all species link to. The pool also links to primary producers in a food web, which make use of the decomposed matter.

Their algorithm differs also in that it determines the relative importance of species through reverse engineering — by seeing which species make the food web collapse fastest if they are removed. The researchers found that the algorithm produces results that were as accurate as much more complex (and computationally costly) software that builds webs from the ground up, simulating evolution.

The next step, Dr. Allesina said, is to refine the algorithm so that it will work with more complex webs. There are many other factors that affect extinctions, including pollution and habitat loss. The goal is to create an algorithm that can take these and other elements into account as well.