Bill Gates
COVID-19 could be a once-in-a-century pandemic, but the good news is that there are steps we can take now to slow its impact and help us respond more effectively when the next epidemic arrives.
We need to save lives now, and also improve the way we respond to outbreaks in general.
GATESNOTES.COM
How to respond to COVID-19
There are two reasons that COVID-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggests that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it several times more severe than typical seasonal influenza and would put it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).
Second, COVID-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others. That’s an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or not even showing symptoms yet. This means COVID-19 will be much harder to contain than Middle East Respiratory Syndrome or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which were only spread by those showing symptoms and were much less efficiently transmitted. In fact, COVID-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in just a quarter of the time.
The good news is that national, state, and local governments and public health agencies can take steps over the next few weeks to slow the spread of COVID-19.
中国に続き、韓国やイタリアで拡大が目立つ新型コロナウイルス。アメリカでも「市中感染」の可能性。パンデミック（世界的な大流行）への懸念と経済への影響を考えます。（会員向け記事です。登録無料）
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