Could maths predict the next 9/11?

Hanching Chung 分享了 BBC World Service 的相片。

21 分鐘前 ·

約29分鐘的訪談：地震、恐怖暴力、盜賊、....背後的數學Pareto (所謂80-20分布)，參考拙譯J. M. Juran"管理三部曲"：
POWER FUNCTION 請參考：http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law (有中文版)。這數學，其實高中生可能都可懂得。

BBC World Service (Discovery 專題)

Could maths predict the next 9/11? When computer scientists decided to study the severity and frequency of 30,000 terror attacks worldwide, they found a distinctive pattern hiding in the data. Now maths has become the latest weapon in the fight against terror. http://bbc.in/1CPSiNS

Dr Hannah Fry investigates the hidden patterns behind terrorism and asks whether mathematics could be used to predict the next 9/11. When computer scientists decided to study the severity and frequency of 30,000 terrorist attacks worldwide, they found an distinctive pattern hiding in the data. Even though the events spanned 5,000 cities in 187 countries over 40 years, every single attack fitted neatly onto a curve, described by an equation known as a 'power law'.

Now this pattern is helping mathematicians and social scientists understand the mechanisms underlying global terrorism. Could these modelling techniques be used to predict if, and when, another attack the size of 9/11 will occur?

Hanching Chung 反對簡單的數學模式作預測者說，它容易流於false positive： A test result that returns True when in fact the result should be False.
A FalsePositive test result indicates a fault with the test procedure rather than a fault with the product under test. http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?FalsePositive

False Positive

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